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本帖最后由 jackiszhp 于 2020-5-3 21:54 编辑
Dear Sir/Madam,
In my article(https://www.flw.ph/thread-967305-1-1.html), I estimated roughly that IFR(what is probability a person will die if the person get infected) for Covid-19 is 0.6% in New York City(we knew the death counts 11267 by April 23, 2020, and we knew roughly the percentage of infected people is 21%, and we knew the
population is 8,398,748), so I could calculate IFR.
#1. now, CFR data is more readily available and more reliable
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019#Prognosis), though the website of Philippines' Health Department
(https://www.doh.gov.ph/covid19tracker) still does not present data in such a way. Attached is the CFR table created by me, I collected data from government's websites. Its 2nd last line is of IFR, and last column is of IFR.
#2. This news (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prisons-testing-in/in-four-u-s-state-prisons-nearly-3300-inmates-test-positive-for-coronavirus-96-without-symptoms-idUSKCN2270RX
) reports that about 96% of infected people do not have symptoms, they even did not know they had been infected. So roughly speaking, only part of the rest (4%) went to the medical system to seek for service,
and hence became part of the CFR data reported to all government agencies.
Be noted that CRF is almost always higher than IFR as for Covid-19, about 96% of infected people did not go to the medical system.
With CFR data, and 96%, we can estimate IFR (=CFR*4%), That's the last line in the attached table. We can see that IFR for Sweden is about 0.4%, for Philippine and New York City is about 0.3%.
The IFR data for influenza in the table (the last column) is from
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_09-508.pdf. They have already been underestimated since the denominator for them are 100K population, rather than the total number of infected people for each age group.
Is Covid-19 severe? Yes, about 15 times severe compared to Influenza. Overall, I would say it is OK to get infected with Covid-19 since the overall IFR is 0.3% in Philippines while flu is 0.017% (previously I
heard chief epidemiologist of US CDC Fouci said 0.1%).
The CFR table seems to suggest that only the elderly and the frail should be isolated from the rest. If they get infected, they might die with higher probabilities. But for healthy young, it is OK to get
infected and get over. So please stop creating panic and spreading panic.
Let's tell people that it is OK to get infected with Covid-19 if you are healthy and if you are young, though you should keep distance from old people such as your grandparents and from anyone who is sick. And
if you are still scared, you always have the right to isolate yourself from the rest of the society.
Thank you for reading.
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发表于 2020-5-6 11:23
